Positive surprises from government reports on retail sales, industrial production, and housing in the past few months are leading economists to revise their real gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts upward supporting the notion that the recession ended in December or January.

Bear in mind: This recovery won’t have the vitality normally associated with an upturn. Economists now expect real GDP growth of about 1.5 in the first quarter. That’s better than the 0.4 the consensus projected in December, but much of the additional growth will come from a slower pace of inventory drawdowns, not from surging demand.

Moreover, the economy won’t grow fast enough to help the labor markets much. The only good news there is that jobless claims have fallen back from their spike after September 11 and that their current level suggests the pace of layoffs is easing.

The recovery also does not mean the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon. The January price indexes show that inflation remains tame. Consequently, the Fed can take its time shifting monetary policy from extreme accommodation to relative neutrality.

Perhaps the best news from the latest economic reports was the January data on industrial production. Total output fell only 0.1, its best showing since July. Factory output was flat, also the best performance in six months. Those numbers may not sound encouraging, but manufacturers have been in recession since late 2000. The data suggest that the factory sector is finding a bottom from which to start its recovery.

Production of consumer goods, for instance, is almost back up to where it was a year ago. That’s because consumer demand for motor vehicles and other goods and the housing industry remained healthy during the recession, and they are still growing in early 2002.

Besides, both the monthly homebuilding starts number and the housing market index for the past two months are running above the averages for all of 2001, suggesting that home-building is off to a good start and probably won’t be big drag on GDP growth this year.

Equally important to the outlook is how the solid housing market will help demand for home-related goods and services. Traditionally, consumers buy the bulk of their furniture, electronics, and textiles within a year of purchasing their homes. Thus, spending on such items will do well this year, even as car sales slip now that incentives are less attractive. Look for the output of consumer goods to top year-ago level in coming months.

Even the business equipment sector seems to have bottomed out. Its output rose 0.4% in January, led by a 0.6% jump computer gear. A pickup in orders for capital goods in the fourth quarter suggests that production will keep increasing—although at a relaxed pace—in coming months.

1. American economists are surprised to see that______.

[A]they have to revise the GDP forecasts so often

[B]their government is announcing the end of a recession

[C]US economy is showing some signs of an upturn

[D]GDP growth reflects stronger domestic demand

2. The most encouraging fact about the US economy is that_____ .

[A]employment rates have risen faster than expected

[B]the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon

[C]industrial production is reaching its lowest point

[D]some economic sectors have become leading industries

3. Of which of the following did the author provide a guardedly optimistic view?

[A]GDP growth. [B]The number of layoffs.

[C]Price indexes. [D]Output of consumer goods.

4. Which of the following is the guarantee of a better future for US economy?

[A]Motor vehicles. [B]Housing market.

[C]Business equipment. [D]Computer gear.

5. Which of the following best summarizes the U. S. economic situation today?

[A]American economists are painting a gloomy picture.

[B]It is slowly warming up with moderate growth.

[C]Recession may come back anytime in the coming months.

[D]Most sectors are picking up at a surprisingly fast pace.

參考答案

1.C 2.C 3.A 4.B 5.B

1.【金考網銀行招聘答案解析】這是一道涉及對第一、二段理解的事實細節題。第一段是一句話段落，其主干結構是positive surprises…lead economists to… supporting the notion that…。該段提到政府報告帶來的意外驚喜使經濟學家將對國民生產總值的預測上調，從而支持了經濟衰退期已在12月或1月終止的觀點。由一段中的“意外驚喜”和“經濟學家上調國民生產總值預測的舉措”可知讓他們吃驚的是經濟狀況好轉的跡象，即[C]項為正確答案。

第一、二段只提到經濟學家對GDP預期的一次調整，無法推出他們頻繁地修改。排除[A]項。由第一段可知，政府只報導了各個領域經濟發展的好勢頭，而未宣布經濟衰退期的終止。排除[B]項。第二段末句but轉折后提到，但是(GDP)增長部分主要是因為存貨提用的速度減緩，而不是需求的增長(surging demand)，由此排除[D]項。

2.【金考網銀行招聘答案解析】本題考查了多處事實細節。第三段第二句提到，惟一的好消息是申請失業保險金人數在9?11事件后達到的高峰期開始回落，現在的水平表明失業的速度(the pace of layoffs)有所緩和(easing)。該句表明失業者還在增加，只是增加的速度低于先前。因此，[A]項與文意相反。[B]項與第四段首句“經濟復蘇并不意味著美聯儲將很快提高利率”含義相反。第五段首句是段落主題句：最近的經濟報道中最好的消息來自1月份工業生產的數據。末句對主題予以說明：數據表明工業生產部門的產量正在達到底線，復蘇即將開始。[C]項是對該句的改寫，是正確選項。文中雖然提到很多經濟部門，但沒有比較誰是主導產業，排除[D]項。

3.【金考網銀行招聘答案解析】本題實際考查了多處事實細節。第二段提到，GDP雖然有所增長，但其增長大多因為存貨提用的速度減緩，而不是需求的增長。而且該段首句也提到：這次經濟復蘇不具有通常經濟好轉所具有的活力。因此作者對GDP的增長是持保守態度的。

[B]項在第三段提到，即申請失業保險金人數的下降表明失業的速度有所緩和。[C]項在第四段第二句中出現，即1月的價格指數表明通貨膨脹仍然很緩和(remained tame)。[D]項在第六段至第九段都有所涉及。因此作者對這三個方面抱有的是很明確的樂觀態度。

4.【金考網銀行招聘答案解析】本題考查了第六段至第九段的事實細節。這四個段落提到了備選項中四個經濟生產部門。第六段提到，消費品的生產幾乎回到了一年前的水平，因為對汽車及其他物品的消費需求以及房屋產業在經濟衰退期間都保持了健康發展。第七段提到，過去兩個月的月住宅建筑和房產市場相關數據都在整個2001年的平均數以上。這表明住宅建筑有了好的開始，可能不會成為今年GDP增長的累贅。第八段提到，穩固的房產市場可以刺激對房屋相關物品和服務的需求，如家具、電子產品和紡織品。期望消費商品的產量在未來的月份里超越年前的水平。第九段提到，甚至辦公設備部門的生產似乎都要降至最低點。它的產量因電腦設備0.6%的漲幅在1月上升了0.4%。

概括而言，汽車是消費者需求的對象，辦公設備和電腦設備的產量只是小幅度的增長，只有房產市場不僅呈現良好發展勢頭，而且還帶動其他生產領域的發展。因此[B]項正確。

5.【金考網銀行招聘答案解析】這是一道涉及對全文主旨理解的考題。綜合全文，作者對美國經濟進行了客觀、全面的分析。從第二至四段的內容可知，作者對GDP的增長原因、經濟對勞動市場的影響、美聯儲提高利率的措施都持有謹慎的樂觀態度。但是作者也指出失業的速度有所緩和(三段末)，美聯儲的貨幣政策相對中性化(四段末)，工業生產部門的產量正在達到底線，復蘇即將開始(第五段)，辦公設備部門將以比較緩和的速度繼續增長(第九段末)。因此[B]項恰當地概括了美國的經濟形勢。

文章開篇就提到，政府報告帶來的意外驚喜使經濟學家對國民生產總值的預測上調。排除[A]項。首段提到，有觀點認為經濟衰退期已在12月或1月終止。但下文只描述了經濟的復蘇趨勢，因此[C]項不符合。[D]項錯在surprisingly fast pace，文中大量出現表示“適中、溫和”含義的關鍵詞，如tame，neutrality，relaxed pace等，表明經濟的發展速度是緩慢的。

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